However, as an inexact science, meteorology has been around for a long time.
解答例
It is widely agreed that the word `meteorology` was coined by the Greek philosopher Aristotle, who wrote a book entitled Meteorologica circa 350 BC.
In this work Aristotle attempted to explain atmospheric phenomena, such as clouds, wind, precipitation, lightning, thunder, and climatic changes.
Although much of the work disclosed in Meteorologica was erroneous, it was not until the 17th century that his ideas were scientifically disproved.
The origins of meteorology as a natural science occurred in the late 16th century.
At this time it had become evident that the speculations of philosophers regarding meteorology were inadequate and that better scientific knowledge was essential to understand the atmosphere.
Therefore, it was realized that instruments were necessary to measure properties on Earth's atmosphere.
As a result, instruments such as the hygrometer, thermometer, and barometer were developed.
These instruments measured atmospheric data and helped identify changes in weather.
However, the weather forecasting effectiveness of such instruments, combined with the understanding of atmospheric processes at the time, were minimal.
It was not until the twentieth century that more detailed scientific instruments and knowledge were cultivated to help predict daily and seasonal climate changes.
For instance, in the 1940s measurements of upper level meteorological components, such as temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind speed and direction, became possible by placing instruments on balloons that were released into the atmosphere.
Meteorological science took an additional step forward in the 1950's with the development of computers.
Computers enabled models to be developed utilizing equations that approximated the physical processes of the atmosphere.
These physical relationships are currently used in weather forecasting in an attempt to predict the future behavior of the atmosphere.
To construct weather models computers use data collected from sophisticated instruments, such as RADAR and meteorological satellites, which provide monitoring of world weather events.
Data from these instruments have been instrumental in improving our knowledge of all weather systems, including fronts, thunderstorms, hurricanes, and other weather events.
Weather and seasonal forecasting and prediction is a sophisticated art that utilizes measurements taken continuously from geographic areas around the globe.
These measurements include temperature, wind speed, height of pressure gradient, humidity, precipitation, and the like, collected from weather balloons, weather stations, satellites, aircraft, buoys, and similar measurement equipment and/or facilities.
Using these and other advancements in remote-sensing technologies to collect data, computer models for forecasting weather conditions have been developed.
Because of the collection and analysis of a vast amount of data from around the world and the numerical simulation of meteorological and climatological processes, supercomputers and the latest advanced mathematical techniques are an integral part of the science of the atmosphere.
Using such equipment, one broad area of meteorological research encompasses the observation, numerical modeling, and prediction of weather systems such as hurricanes and severe storms.
Today, sophisticated numerical models used in operational and research centers throughout the globe routinely make short-term (1 to 7 days in advance) weather and seasonal (one to several seasons in advance) climate forecasts.
Models and projections are developed by the National Weather Service (the governmental entity in the United States charged with disseminating weather data to the public) and other private forecasting firms.
Nevertheless, despite the vast scientific and technological improvements and advances in meteorology, including the modeling of weather using data accumulated by weather-monitoring instruments, weather prediction and models are often inaccurate, vague, broad, and lack regional or local specificity.
Because of the impact of weather on our daily lives, it is an understatement that it would be beneficial if we could predict both the short term and long term weather.
Therefore, what is needed is a forecasting method and system that permits more accurate weather forecasts based upon the vast collection of data provided by scientific weather instruments.
What is also needed is a forecasting method and system that can more accurately forecast climatological or seasonal weather changes.
Systems, methods and computer program products of the present invention collect historical forecast information generated from a plurality of weather models (or forecast models), where each model forecasted at least one predicted weather component.
For example, a weather model may include a forecasted temperature (predicted weather component) for a specific geographical location for a certain past date or time period.