According to yet another embodiment of the invention, there is disclosed a method for generating accurate weather forecasts.
解答例
The method includes accumulating historical forecast information from a plurality of weather models, where the historical forecast information is derived prior to the occurrence of weather forecasted by the plurality of weather models, and wherein the historical forecast information includes a plurality of predicted weather components related to expected weather conditions.
The method also includes collecting observed weather data after the occurrence of the weather forecasted by the plurality of weather models, wherein the observed weather data includes known weather values corresponding to at least some of the plurality of predicted weather components, and weighting the historical performance of each weather model in predicting the plurality of predicted weather components by comparing the accumulated historical forecast information to the observed weather data.
Further, the method includes generating a superensemble weather model based upon a combination of each weighted weather model.
According to one aspect of the invention, weighting the historical performance of each weather model in predicting the plurality of predicted weather components includes weighting the historical performance of each weather model by a least squares minimization calculation between each weather model and the observed weather data.
According to another aspect of the invention, generating a superensemble weather model based upon a combination of each weighted weather model includes combining each weighted weather model to develop a forecast for future weather conditions.
According to yet another embodiment of the present invention, there is disclosed a system for generating an accurate weather forecasting model.
The system includes a plurality of weather models, wherein the weather models include historical forecasts for past weather conditions and prospective forecasts for future weather conditions, observed weather data corresponding to the past weather conditions, and a superensemble generator.
The superensemble generator is in communication with the plurality of weather models and observed weather data, for producing a superensemble forecast, and the superensemble generator determines the historical performance of the plurality of weather models based on a comparison of the historical forecasts for past weather conditions to the observed weather data.
Additionally, the superensemble forecast is based at least in part upon the historical performance of the plurality of weather models and the prospective forecasts for future weather conditions.
According to one aspect of the invention, the historical forecasts include at least one predicted weather component, wherein the observed weather data corresponds to a plurality of known weather values, and wherein at least one known weather value of the plurality of known weather values corresponds to the at least one predicted weather component.
According to another aspect of the invention, the observed weather data consists of data selected from the group consisting of precipitation, temperature, wind speed and direction, height, pressure, atmospheric moisture content, and tropical cyclone positions and intensities.
According to yet another aspect of the invention, the superensemble generator is in communication with the plurality of weather models via the Internet, a wide area network, or a local area network.
Finally, according to another aspect of the invention, the superensemble generator includes a processor, and a superensemble module in communication with said processor, wherein the superensemble module and processor operate to compare the historical forecasts to the observed weather data to determine the historical performance of the plurality of weather model.
According to yet another embodiment of the present invention, there is disclosed a computer program product for generating an accurate weather forecast model, comprising a computer readable storage medium having computer-readable program code means embodied in said medium.
The computer-readable program code means include computer-readable program code means for collecting historical forecast information from a plurality of weather models, wherein the historical forecast information includes at least one predicted weather component, and wherein the historical forecast information corresponds to a past period of time, and computer-readable program code means for accumulating observed weather data, wherein the observed weather data corresponds to a plurality of known weather values, wherein at least one known weather value of the plurality of known weather values corresponds to the at least one predicted weather component, and wherein the observed weather data corresponds to the past period of time.
The computer readable program code means also include computer readable program code means for comparing the historical forecast information to the observed weather data to determine the historical performance of each weather model of the plurality of weather models, and computer-readable program code means for generating a multi-model superensemble of the weather models, wherein the multi-model superensemble is based upon the historical performance of each weather model of the plurality of weather models.
According to one aspect of the invention, the computer-readable program code means for comparing the historical forecast information to the observed weather data to determine the historical performance of each weather model comprises computer-readable program code means for comparing the at least one known weather value to the at least one predicted weather component.
According to another aspect of the invention, the computer-readable program code means for comparing the at least one known weather value to the at least one predicted weather component comprises computer-readable program code means for calculating at least one weight factor for the at least one predicted weather component.
According to yet another aspect of the invention, the computer-readable program code means for comparing the at least one known weather value to the at least one predicted weather component comprises computer-readable program code means for calculating at least one weight factor for the at least one predicted weather component by least squares minimization.
Furthermore, the computer-readable program code means for generating a multi-model superensemble of the weather models can comprise computer-readable program code means for generating a multi-model superensemble based upon a combination of weather models weighted by their respective historical performances.
According to yet another aspect of the invention, the computer-readable program code means for generating a multi-model superensemble of the weather models comprises computer-readable program code means for generating a multi-model superensemble based upon a summation of the at least one weight factor for the at least one predicted weather component of each of the plurality of weather models.
The computer readable program code means can additionally include computer-readable program code means for collecting future forecast information from the plurality of weather models corresponding to a future period of time, and wherein the computer-readable program code means for generating a multi-model superensemble comprises computer-readable program code means for generating a multi-model superensemble based upon the historical performance of each weather model of the plurality of weather models and the future forecast information.
Finally, the computer-readable program code means for generating a multi-model superensemble can include computer-readable program code means for weighting the future forecast information from the plurality of weather models based upon the historical performance of each weather model of the plurality of weather models.
A method and system for alerting a driver of a commercial vehicle or private vehicle, such as a truck or automobile, of an approaching emergency vehicle, such as a police or fire vehicle, and vice versa.
The system includes a navigation information system in each vehicle, a transmitter in the second vehicle, a receiver in the first vehicle, a processing system, and a warning system in the first vehicle.
Each navigation information system provides data that describe the geographic position and speed of the vehicle.
The receiver in the first vehicle receives the navigation information transmitted by the second vehicle.
The processor and associated electronics in the first vehicle determines the position and direction of travel of the second vehicle relative to the first vehicle.
The warning system in the first vehicle provides a suitable indication to alert the driver if it is determined that the two vehicles are likely to collide.
